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Ittihad Tanger vs Raja Casablanca — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
3 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
9/25/2024Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 2Stade Saniat Rmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 121+ matches

Ittihad Tanger29%
×Draw30%
Raja Casablanca41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
0.94
Raja Casablanca
1.17

Raja Casablanca creates 24% more chances

Season form · 121 home / 121 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.95
Raja Casablanca
1.34

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
1.00
Raja Casablanca
0.94

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
59%
Ittihad Tanger or Raja Casablanca
70%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
71%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
10%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
61%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
24%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
7%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
69%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
33%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
42%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.95, concedes 1.00 · 121 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.34, concedes 0.94 · 121 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.95 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Raja Casablanca attack 1.34 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
29%
level
30%
Raja Casablanca scores more
41%

Raja Casablanca at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola Pro: Ittihad Tanger 3–1 Raja Casablanca

Ittihad Tanger beat Raja Casablanca 3-1 in Botola Pro on September 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Saniat Rmel in Tétouan.