Raja Casablanca 1–0 Horoya: Result & Stats

Raja Casablanca

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Horoya

2/25/2022

CAF Champions League · Group B - 3Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Raja Casablanca67%

×Draw24%

Horoya9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja CasablancaExpected goals in this matchHoroya

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

0.41

Raja Casablanca

1.61

Horoya

0.41

Raja Casablanca creates 293% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 17 away

1.64

creates per match

0.47

0.36

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Raja Casablanca

1.64

Horoya

0.47

allows per match

Raja Casablanca

0.36

Horoya

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Horoya+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No73
Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Horoya →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–017%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw

91%

Raja Casablanca or Horoya

76%

Draw or Horoya

33%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

38%

Horoya wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

80%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

48%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

22%

Horoya 1+ goals

34%

Horoya 2+ goals

6%

Horoya 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

88%

Horoya (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Horoya away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + Horoya defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.61

Horoya attack 0.47 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more

67%

level

24%

Horoya scores more

9%

Raja Casablanca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff