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Horoya vs Raja Casablanca — CAF Champions League 2019

Horoya
Horoya
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
3/12/2022CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group B - 4Stade Général Lansana Conté

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Horoya39%
×Draw29%
Raja Casablanca32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Horoya
1.20
Raja Casablanca
1.05

Horoya creates 14% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

creates per match

Horoya
1.35
Raja Casablanca
1.39

allows per match

Horoya
0.71
Raja Casablanca
1.04

finishing

Horoya+0.00on par
Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Horoya ↓

Raja Casablanca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Horoya or draw
68%
Horoya or Raja Casablanca
71%
Draw or Raja Casablanca
61%

Winning margin

Horoya wins by 2+
17%
Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Horoya 1+ goals
70%
Horoya 2+ goals
34%
Horoya 3+ goals
12%
Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
65%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
28%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Horoya (draw refunded)
55%
Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Horoya at home — creates 1.35, concedes 0.71 · 17 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Horoya attack 1.35 + Raja Casablanca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.20

Raja Casablanca attack 1.39 + Horoya defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Horoya scores more
39%
level
29%
Raja Casablanca scores more
32%

Horoya at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Horoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

CAF Champions League: Horoya 2–1 Raja Casablanca

Horoya beat Raja Casablanca 2-1 in CAF Champions League on March 12, 2022.

The match was played at Stade Général Lansana Conté in Conakry.