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Raja Casablanca vs Esperance Tunis — CAF Champions League 2019

Raja Casablanca
Raja Casablanca
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Esperance Tunis
Esperance Tunis
11/30/2019CAF Champions LeagueCAF Champions League · Group Stage - 1Stade Mohamed V

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Raja Casablanca50%
×Draw29%
Esperance Tunis20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Casablanca
1.27
Esperance Tunis
0.69

Raja Casablanca creates 84% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 40 away

creates per match

Raja Casablanca
1.64
Esperance Tunis
1.02

allows per match

Raja Casablanca
0.36
Esperance Tunis
0.90

finishing

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par
Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Casablanca ↓

Esperance Tunis →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Casablanca or draw
80%
Raja Casablanca or Esperance Tunis
71%
Draw or Esperance Tunis
50%

Winning margin

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+
23%
Esperance Tunis wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals
72%
Raja Casablanca 2+ goals
36%
Raja Casablanca 3+ goals
14%
Esperance Tunis 1+ goals
50%
Esperance Tunis 2+ goals
15%
Esperance Tunis 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)
71%
Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Casablanca at home — creates 1.64, concedes 0.36 · 22 matches

Esperance Tunis away — creates 1.02, concedes 0.90 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Casablanca attack 1.64 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.27

Esperance Tunis attack 1.02 + Raja Casablanca defence 0.36 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Raja Casablanca scores more
50%
level
29%
Esperance Tunis scores more
20%

Raja Casablanca at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Raja Casablanca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Casablanca vs Esperance Tunis

Esperance Tunis beat Raja Casablanca 2-0 in CAF Champions League on November 30, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Mohamed V in Casablanca.