Esperance Tunis 2–2 Raja Casablanca: Result & Stats

Esperance Tunis

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Raja Casablanca

1/25/2020

CAF Champions League · Group Stage - 5Stade Olympique de Radès

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Esperance Tunis44%

×Draw29%

Raja Casablanca27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esperance TunisExpected goals in this matchRaja Casablanca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

0.92

Esperance Tunis

1.27

Raja Casablanca

0.92

Esperance Tunis creates 38% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 23 away

1.50

creates per match

1.39

0.45

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Esperance Tunis

1.50

Raja Casablanca

1.39

allows per match

Esperance Tunis

0.45

Raja Casablanca

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esperance Tunis+0.00on par

Raja Casablanca+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esperance Tunis ↓

Raja Casablanca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Esperance Tunis or draw

73%

Esperance Tunis or Raja Casablanca

71%

Draw or Raja Casablanca

56%

Winning margin

Esperance Tunis wins by 2+

20%

Raja Casablanca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Esperance Tunis 1+ goals

72%

Esperance Tunis 2+ goals

36%

Esperance Tunis 3+ goals

14%

Raja Casablanca 1+ goals

60%

Raja Casablanca 2+ goals

23%

Raja Casablanca 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Esperance Tunis (draw refunded)

62%

Raja Casablanca (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esperance Tunis at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.45 · 40 matches

Raja Casablanca away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.04 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esperance Tunis attack 1.50 + Raja Casablanca defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.27

Raja Casablanca attack 1.39 + Esperance Tunis defence 0.45 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Esperance Tunis scores more

44%

level

29%

Raja Casablanca scores more

27%

Esperance Tunis at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Esperance Tunis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff