Raja Beni Mellal 2–2 Kawkab Marrakech

Raja Beni Mellal

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Kawkab Marrakech

3/15/2024

Botola 2 · Round 20Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal41%

×Draw32%

Kawkab Marrakech27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja Beni MellalExpected goals in this matchKawkab Marrakech

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.81

Raja Beni Mellal

1.06

Kawkab Marrakech

0.81

Raja Beni Mellal creates 31% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 75 away

1.13

creates per match

0.79

0.84

allows per match

0.99

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal

1.13

Kawkab Marrakech

0.79

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal

0.84

Kawkab Marrakech

0.99

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Kawkab Marrakech →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–112%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw

73%

Raja Beni Mellal or Kawkab Marrakech

68%

Draw or Kawkab Marrakech

59%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

16%

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

65%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

29%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

9%

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals

56%

Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals

19%

Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

60%

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

Kawkab Marrakech away — creates 0.79, concedes 0.99 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Kawkab Marrakech attack 0.79 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

41%

level

32%

Kawkab Marrakech scores more

27%

Raja Beni Mellal at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff