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Kawkab Marrakech vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

Kawkab Marrakech
Kawkab Marrakech
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
10/7/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 5Stade de Marrakech

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Kawkab Marrakech44%
×Draw29%
Raja Beni Mellal27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kawkab Marrakech
1.27
Raja Beni Mellal
0.93

Kawkab Marrakech creates 37% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 105 away

creates per match

Kawkab Marrakech
1.41
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

Kawkab Marrakech
0.95
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

Kawkab Marrakech+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kawkab Marrakech ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kawkab Marrakech or draw
73%
Kawkab Marrakech or Raja Beni Mellal
71%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
56%

Winning margin

Kawkab Marrakech wins by 2+
20%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kawkab Marrakech 1+ goals
72%
Kawkab Marrakech 2+ goals
36%
Kawkab Marrakech 3+ goals
14%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
61%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
24%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kawkab Marrakech (draw refunded)
62%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kawkab Marrakech at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.95 · 75 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kawkab Marrakech attack 1.41 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.27

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + Kawkab Marrakech defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kawkab Marrakech scores more
44%
level
29%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
27%

Kawkab Marrakech at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kawkab Marrakech will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kawkab Marrakech vs Raja Beni Mellal

Kawkab Marrakech beat Raja Beni Mellal 2-1 in Botola 2 on October 7, 2023.

The match was played at Stade de Marrakech in Marrakech.