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Raja Beni Mellal vs Ittihad Tanger — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
9/20/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 24Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal29%
×Draw29%
Ittihad Tanger42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
0.97
Ittihad Tanger
1.23

Ittihad Tanger creates 27% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 116 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.57
Ittihad Tanger
0.89

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.57
Ittihad Tanger
1.38

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

Ittihad Tanger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
58%
Raja Beni Mellal or Ittihad Tanger
71%
Draw or Ittihad Tanger
71%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
11%
Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
62%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
25%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
7%
Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
71%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
35%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
41%
Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

Ittihad Tanger away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.38 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.57 + Ittihad Tanger defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 0.97

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.89 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
29%
level
29%
Ittihad Tanger scores more
42%

Ittihad Tanger at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs Ittihad Tanger

Ittihad Tanger beat Raja Beni Mellal 1-0 in Botola Pro on September 20, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.