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Ittihad Tanger vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola Pro 2025

Ittihad Tanger
Ittihad Tanger
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
12/8/2019Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 9Grand Stade de Tanger

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Ittihad Tanger46%
×Draw33%
Raja Beni Mellal21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ittihad Tanger
1.08
Raja Beni Mellal
0.63

Ittihad Tanger creates 71% more chances

Season form · 118 home / 15 away

creates per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.97
Raja Beni Mellal
0.27

allows per match

Ittihad Tanger
0.99
Raja Beni Mellal
1.20

finishing

Ittihad Tanger+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ittihad Tanger ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Ittihad Tanger or draw
79%
Ittihad Tanger or Raja Beni Mellal
67%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
54%

Winning margin

Ittihad Tanger wins by 2+
19%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ittihad Tanger 1+ goals
66%
Ittihad Tanger 2+ goals
29%
Ittihad Tanger 3+ goals
10%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
47%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
13%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Ittihad Tanger (draw refunded)
68%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ittihad Tanger at home — creates 0.97, concedes 0.99 · 118 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.27, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ittihad Tanger attack 0.97 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.08

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.27 + Ittihad Tanger defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Ittihad Tanger scores more
46%
level
33%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
21%

Ittihad Tanger at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ittihad Tanger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ittihad Tanger vs Raja Beni Mellal

Ittihad Tanger beat Raja Beni Mellal 1-0 in Botola Pro on December 8, 2019.

The match was played at Grand Stade de Tanger in Tanger.