Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Raja Beni Mellal vs FAR Rabat — Cup 2020

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
0 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabatadvanced
8/1/2021CupCup · Semi-finalsStade d'Agadir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal33%
×Draw31%
FAR Rabat37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
0.97
FAR Rabat
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.20
FAR Rabat
1.50

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.60
FAR Rabat
0.75

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–114%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
63%
Raja Beni Mellal or FAR Rabat
69%
Draw or FAR Rabat
67%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
12%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
62%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
25%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
7%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
65%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
28%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
47%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.20 + FAR Rabat defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.97

FAR Rabat attack 1.50 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
33%
level
31%
FAR Rabat scores more
37%

FAR Rabat at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Raja Beni Mellal 1-0 in Cup on August 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stade d'Agadir in Agadir.