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Raja Beni Mellal vs FAR Rabat — Botola Pro 2025

Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
FAR Rabat
FAR Rabat
10/4/2020Botola ProBotola Pro · Round 28Stade Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal19%
×Draw26%
FAR Rabat55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raja Beni Mellal
0.74
FAR Rabat
1.48

FAR Rabat creates 100% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 118 away

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal
0.57
FAR Rabat
1.39

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal
1.57
FAR Rabat
0.92

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par
FAR Rabat+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

FAR Rabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–116%
0–212%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw
45%
Raja Beni Mellal or FAR Rabat
74%
Draw or FAR Rabat
81%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
5%
FAR Rabat wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
52%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
17%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
4%
FAR Rabat 1+ goals
77%
FAR Rabat 2+ goals
43%
FAR Rabat 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
25%
FAR Rabat (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 0.57, concedes 1.57 · 14 matches

FAR Rabat away — creates 1.39, concedes 0.92 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.57 + FAR Rabat defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.74

FAR Rabat attack 1.39 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more
19%
level
26%
FAR Rabat scores more
55%

FAR Rabat at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "FAR Rabat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raja Beni Mellal vs FAR Rabat

FAR Rabat beat Raja Beni Mellal 3-0 in Botola Pro on October 4, 2020.

The match was played at Stade Municipal in Oued Zem.