Raja Beni Mellal 1–0 CODM Meknès: Result & Stats

Raja Beni Mellal

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

CODM Meknès

5/5/2024

Botola 2 · Round 24Stade Municipal de Beni Mellal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Raja Beni Mellal37%

×Draw32%

CODM Meknès31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raja Beni MellalExpected goals in this matchCODM Meknès

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.00

0.89

Raja Beni Mellal

1.00

CODM Meknès

0.89

Raja Beni Mellal creates 12% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 15 away

1.13

creates per match

0.93

0.84

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Raja Beni Mellal

1.13

CODM Meknès

0.93

allows per match

Raja Beni Mellal

0.84

CODM Meknès

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

CODM Meknès+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raja Beni Mellal ↓

CODM Meknès →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Raja Beni Mellal or draw

69%

Raja Beni Mellal or CODM Meknès

68%

Draw or CODM Meknès

63%

Winning margin

Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+

14%

CODM Meknès wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals

63%

Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals

26%

Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals

8%

CODM Meknès 1+ goals

59%

CODM Meknès 2+ goals

22%

CODM Meknès 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)

54%

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raja Beni Mellal at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.84 · 105 matches

CODM Meknès away — creates 0.93, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raja Beni Mellal attack 1.13 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

CODM Meknès attack 0.93 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Raja Beni Mellal scores more

37%

level

32%

CODM Meknès scores more

31%

Raja Beni Mellal at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Raja Beni Mellal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff