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CODM Meknès vs Raja Beni Mellal — Botola 2 2025

CODM Meknès
CODM Meknès
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Raja Beni Mellal
Raja Beni Mellal
11/4/2023Botola 2Botola 2 · Round 9Stade d'Honneur

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

CODM Meknès48%
×Draw28%
Raja Beni Mellal25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

CODM Meknès
1.36
Raja Beni Mellal
0.89

CODM Meknès creates 53% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 105 away

creates per match

CODM Meknès
1.60
Raja Beni Mellal
0.91

allows per match

CODM Meknès
0.87
Raja Beni Mellal
1.12

finishing

CODM Meknès+0.00on par
Raja Beni Mellal+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

CODM Meknès ↓

Raja Beni Mellal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

CODM Meknès or draw
75%
CODM Meknès or Raja Beni Mellal
72%
Draw or Raja Beni Mellal
52%

Winning margin

CODM Meknès wins by 2+
23%
Raja Beni Mellal wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

CODM Meknès 1+ goals
74%
CODM Meknès 2+ goals
39%
CODM Meknès 3+ goals
16%
Raja Beni Mellal 1+ goals
59%
Raja Beni Mellal 2+ goals
22%
Raja Beni Mellal 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

CODM Meknès (draw refunded)
66%
Raja Beni Mellal (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

CODM Meknès at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Raja Beni Mellal away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

CODM Meknès attack 1.60 + Raja Beni Mellal defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.36

Raja Beni Mellal attack 0.91 + CODM Meknès defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

CODM Meknès scores more
48%
level
28%
Raja Beni Mellal scores more
25%

CODM Meknès at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "CODM Meknès will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Botola 2: CODM Meknès 0–3 Raja Beni Mellal

Raja Beni Mellal beat CODM Meknès 3-0 in Botola 2 on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Stade d'Honneur in Meknès.