Raj Pracha 1–0 Nakhon Pathom: Result & Stats

Raj Pracha

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nakhon Pathom

4/1/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 31Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha36%

×Draw30%

Nakhon Pathom34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raj PrachaExpected goals in this matchNakhon Pathom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.06

Raj Pracha

1.09

Nakhon Pathom

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 70 away

1.18

creates per match

1.04

1.09

allows per match

1.01

creates per match

Raj Pracha

1.18

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

allows per match

Raj Pracha

1.09

Nakhon Pathom

1.01

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Nakhon Pathom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw

66%

Raj Pracha or Nakhon Pathom

70%

Draw or Nakhon Pathom

64%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

14%

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

66%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

30%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

10%

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

65%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

29%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

51%

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Nakhon Pathom away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.04 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Raj Pracha scores more

36%

level

30%

Nakhon Pathom scores more

34%

Raj Pracha at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff