Nakhon Pathom 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Nakhon Pathom

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Raj Pracha

11/27/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 15Nakhon Pathom Municipality Sport School Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Nakhon Pathom51%

×Draw27%

Raj Pracha22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nakhon PathomExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.86

Nakhon Pathom

1.44

Raj Pracha

0.86

Nakhon Pathom creates 67% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 34 away

1.46

creates per match

0.68

1.04

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.46

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Nakhon Pathom

1.04

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nakhon Pathom+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nakhon Pathom ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nakhon Pathom or draw

78%

Nakhon Pathom or Raj Pracha

73%

Draw or Raj Pracha

49%

Winning margin

Nakhon Pathom wins by 2+

25%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nakhon Pathom 1+ goals

76%

Nakhon Pathom 2+ goals

42%

Nakhon Pathom 3+ goals

18%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

58%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

21%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nakhon Pathom (draw refunded)

69%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nakhon Pathom at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.04 · 69 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nakhon Pathom attack 1.46 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.44

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Nakhon Pathom defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nakhon Pathom scores more

51%

level

27%

Raj Pracha scores more

22%

Nakhon Pathom at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nakhon Pathom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff