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Raj Pracha vs Lamphun Warrior — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
12/4/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 17LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Raj Pracha30%
×Draw27%
Lamphun Warrior43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.06
Lamphun Warrior
1.34

Lamphun Warrior creates 26% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Lamphun Warrior
1.59

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Lamphun Warrior
0.94

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Lamphun Warrior →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
57%
Raj Pracha or Lamphun Warrior
73%
Draw or Lamphun Warrior
70%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
11%
Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
65%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
29%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
9%
Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
74%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
39%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
41%
Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Lamphun Warrior away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.06

Lamphun Warrior attack 1.59 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
30%
level
27%
Lamphun Warrior scores more
43%

Lamphun Warrior at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raj Pracha vs Lamphun Warrior

Lamphun Warrior beat Raj Pracha 1-0 in Thai League 2 on December 4, 2021.

The match was played at LEO Stadium in Thanyaburi, Pathum Thani.