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Lamphun Warrior vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Lamphun Warrior
Lamphun Warrior
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
4/24/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Mae Guang Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Lamphun Warrior63%
×Draw22%
Raj Pracha15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lamphun Warrior
1.85
Raj Pracha
0.75

Lamphun Warrior creates 147% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 34 away

creates per match

Lamphun Warrior
2.29
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Lamphun Warrior
0.82
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Lamphun Warrior+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lamphun Warrior ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Lamphun Warrior or draw
85%
Lamphun Warrior or Raj Pracha
78%
Draw or Raj Pracha
37%

Winning margin

Lamphun Warrior wins by 2+
38%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Lamphun Warrior 1+ goals
84%
Lamphun Warrior 2+ goals
55%
Lamphun Warrior 3+ goals
28%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
53%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
17%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Lamphun Warrior (draw refunded)
81%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lamphun Warrior at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lamphun Warrior attack 2.29 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.85

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Lamphun Warrior defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Lamphun Warrior scores more
63%
level
22%
Raj Pracha scores more
15%

Lamphun Warrior at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Lamphun Warrior will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lamphun Warrior vs Raj Pracha

Lamphun Warrior beat Raj Pracha 2-0 in Thai League 2 on April 24, 2022.

The match was played at Mae Guang Stadium in Lamphun.