Raj Pracha 3–0 Krabi FC: Result & Stats

Raj Pracha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Krabi FC

12/3/2022

Thai League 2 · Round 16Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha53%

×Draw24%

Krabi FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raj PrachaExpected goals in this matchKrabi FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.02

Raj Pracha

1.69

Krabi FC

1.02

Raj Pracha creates 66% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 48 away

1.18

creates per match

0.94

1.09

allows per match

2.21

creates per match

Raj Pracha

1.18

Krabi FC

0.94

allows per match

Raj Pracha

1.09

Krabi FC

2.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Krabi FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw

77%

Raj Pracha or Krabi FC

76%

Draw or Krabi FC

47%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

29%

Krabi FC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

82%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

50%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

24%

Krabi FC 1+ goals

64%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

27%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

70%

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Krabi FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.21 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Krabi FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.69

Krabi FC attack 0.94 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Raj Pracha scores more

53%

level

24%

Krabi FC scores more

23%

Raj Pracha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff