Krabi FC 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Krabi FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Raj Pracha

4/9/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 32Krabi Provincial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Krabi FC44%

×Draw29%

Raj Pracha26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Krabi FCExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.88

Krabi FC

1.23

Raj Pracha

0.88

Krabi FC creates 40% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 34 away

1.04

creates per match

0.68

1.08

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Krabi FC

1.04

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Krabi FC

1.08

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Krabi FC+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Krabi FC ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Krabi FC or draw

74%

Krabi FC or Raj Pracha

71%

Draw or Raj Pracha

56%

Winning margin

Krabi FC wins by 2+

20%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Krabi FC 1+ goals

71%

Krabi FC 2+ goals

35%

Krabi FC 3+ goals

13%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

59%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

22%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Krabi FC (draw refunded)

63%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Krabi FC at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.08 · 48 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Krabi FC attack 1.04 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Krabi FC defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Krabi FC scores more

44%

level

29%

Raj Pracha scores more

26%

Krabi FC at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krabi FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff