Raj Pracha 0–3 Chiangmai FC: Result & Stats

Raj Pracha

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Chiangmai FC

9/12/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 2LEO Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha40%

×Draw27%

Chiangmai FC33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raj PrachaExpected goals in this matchChiangmai FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.14

Raj Pracha

1.28

Chiangmai FC

1.14

Raj Pracha creates 12% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 81 away

1.18

creates per match

1.19

1.09

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Raj Pracha

1.18

Chiangmai FC

1.19

allows per match

Raj Pracha

1.09

Chiangmai FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Chiangmai FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw

67%

Raj Pracha or Chiangmai FC

73%

Draw or Chiangmai FC

60%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

18%

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

72%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

37%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

14%

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals

68%

Chiangmai FC 2+ goals

32%

Chiangmai FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

55%

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Chiangmai FC away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Chiangmai FC attack 1.19 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Raj Pracha scores more

40%

level

27%

Chiangmai FC scores more

33%

Raj Pracha at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff