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Chiangmai FC vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Chiangmai FC
Chiangmai FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
1/9/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 18700th Anniversary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chiangmai FC54%
×Draw25%
Raj Pracha21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chiangmai FC
1.59
Raj Pracha
0.90

Chiangmai FC creates 77% more chances

Season form · 82 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chiangmai FC
1.78
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Chiangmai FC
1.12
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Chiangmai FC+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chiangmai FC ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Chiangmai FC or draw
79%
Chiangmai FC or Raj Pracha
75%
Draw or Raj Pracha
46%

Winning margin

Chiangmai FC wins by 2+
28%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Chiangmai FC 1+ goals
80%
Chiangmai FC 2+ goals
47%
Chiangmai FC 3+ goals
21%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
59%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
23%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Chiangmai FC (draw refunded)
72%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chiangmai FC at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.12 · 82 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chiangmai FC attack 1.78 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.59

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Chiangmai FC defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Chiangmai FC scores more
54%
level
25%
Raj Pracha scores more
21%

Chiangmai FC at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Chiangmai FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chiangmai FC 0–0 Raj Pracha

Chiangmai FC and Raj Pracha drew 0-0 in Thai League 2 on January 9, 2022.

The match was played at 700th Anniversary Stadium in Chiang Mai.