Raj Pracha 0–1 Chainat: Result & Stats

Raj Pracha

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Chainat

2/25/2023

Thai League 2 · Round 25Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha42%

×Draw27%

Chainat30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raj PrachaExpected goals in this matchChainat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.08

Raj Pracha

1.33

Chainat

1.08

Raj Pracha creates 23% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 105 away

1.18

creates per match

1.07

1.09

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Raj Pracha

1.18

Chainat

1.07

allows per match

Raj Pracha

1.09

Chainat

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Chainat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Chainat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw

70%

Raj Pracha or Chainat

73%

Draw or Chainat

58%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

19%

Chainat wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

74%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

38%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

15%

Chainat 1+ goals

66%

Chainat 2+ goals

29%

Chainat 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

58%

Chainat (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Chainat away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.49 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Chainat defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.33

Chainat attack 1.07 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Raj Pracha scores more

42%

level

27%

Chainat scores more

30%

Raj Pracha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff