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Chainat vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Chainat
Chainat
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
10/16/2022Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 9Khao Plong Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Chainat51%
×Draw26%
Raj Pracha23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chainat
1.52
Raj Pracha
0.94

Chainat creates 62% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 34 away

creates per match

Chainat
1.63
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Chainat
1.19
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Chainat+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chainat ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Chainat or draw
77%
Chainat or Raj Pracha
74%
Draw or Raj Pracha
49%

Winning margin

Chainat wins by 2+
26%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Chainat 1+ goals
78%
Chainat 2+ goals
45%
Chainat 3+ goals
20%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
61%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
24%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Chainat (draw refunded)
68%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chainat at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.19 · 104 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chainat attack 1.63 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.52

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Chainat defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Chainat scores more
51%
level
26%
Raj Pracha scores more
23%

Chainat at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Chainat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Chainat 1–1 Raj Pracha

Chainat and Raj Pracha drew 1-1 in Thai League 2 on October 16, 2022.

The match was played at Khao Plong Stadium in Chainat.