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Raj Pracha vs Ayutthaya FC — Thai League 2 2018

Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
2/4/2023Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 22Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Raj Pracha39%
×Draw27%
Ayutthaya FC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raj Pracha
1.28
Ayutthaya FC
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 101 away

creates per match

Raj Pracha
1.18
Ayutthaya FC
1.25

allows per match

Raj Pracha
1.09
Ayutthaya FC
1.38

finishing

Raj Pracha+0.00on par
Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raj Pracha ↓

Ayutthaya FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Raj Pracha or draw
66%
Raj Pracha or Ayutthaya FC
73%
Draw or Ayutthaya FC
61%

Winning margin

Raj Pracha wins by 2+
17%
Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Raj Pracha 1+ goals
72%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
37%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
14%
Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
69%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
33%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
54%
Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raj Pracha at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.09 · 34 matches

Ayutthaya FC away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.38 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raj Pracha attack 1.18 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.25 + Raj Pracha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Raj Pracha scores more
39%
level
27%
Ayutthaya FC scores more
34%

Raj Pracha at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Raj Pracha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Raj Pracha 0–3 Ayutthaya FC

Ayutthaya FC beat Raj Pracha 3-0 in Thai League 2 on February 4, 2023.

The match was played at Nonthaburi Provincial Stadium‎ in Nonthaburi.