Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ayutthaya FC vs Raj Pracha — Thai League 2 2018

Ayutthaya FC
Ayutthaya FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Raj Pracha
Raj Pracha
10/24/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 10Ayutthaya Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ayutthaya FC49%
×Draw26%
Raj Pracha25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ayutthaya FC
1.48
Raj Pracha
0.97

Ayutthaya FC creates 53% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.54
Raj Pracha
0.68

allows per match

Ayutthaya FC
1.26
Raj Pracha
1.41

finishing

Ayutthaya FC+0.00on par
Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayutthaya FC ↓

Raj Pracha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ayutthaya FC or draw
75%
Ayutthaya FC or Raj Pracha
74%
Draw or Raj Pracha
51%

Winning margin

Ayutthaya FC wins by 2+
25%
Raj Pracha wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Ayutthaya FC 1+ goals
77%
Ayutthaya FC 2+ goals
43%
Ayutthaya FC 3+ goals
19%
Raj Pracha 1+ goals
62%
Raj Pracha 2+ goals
25%
Raj Pracha 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Ayutthaya FC (draw refunded)
66%
Raj Pracha (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayutthaya FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.26 · 103 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayutthaya FC attack 1.54 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.48

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Ayutthaya FC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ayutthaya FC scores more
49%
level
26%
Raj Pracha scores more
25%

Ayutthaya FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ayutthaya FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Ayutthaya FC 2–0 Raj Pracha

Ayutthaya FC beat Raj Pracha 2-0 in Thai League 2 on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Ayutthaya Stadium in Ayutthaya.