Raith Rovers 2–1 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Stranraer

E. Murray 90'

J. Hamilton 5'

E. Dunlop 84'

7/16/2024

League Cup · Group Stage - 2Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Raith Rovers70%

×Draw17%

Stranraer13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.03

Raith Rovers

2.56

Stranraer

1.03

Raith Rovers creates 149% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 11 away

2.58

creates per match

0.82

1.25

allows per match

2.55

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.58

Stranraer

0.82

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.25

Stranraer

2.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

87%

Raith Rovers or Stranraer

83%

Draw or Stranraer

30%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

48%

Stranraer wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

92%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

72%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

46%

Stranraer 1+ goals

64%

Stranraer 2+ goals

28%

Stranraer 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

84%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.82, concedes 2.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Stranraer defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.56

Stranraer attack 0.82 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

70%

level

17%

Stranraer scores more

13%

Raith Rovers at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

J. Hamilton↳ J. Mullin

37'

C. Smith← J. Hamilton

62'

S. Stanton← A. Connolly

67'

T. Orr← D. Lang

67'

E. Dunlop← M. Grant

78'

L. Gibson← J. Mullin

79'

S. Byrne← R. Matthews

79'

R. Edgar← D. Hawkshaw

84'

E. Dunlop↳ R. Edgar

90+3'

G. Gallagher

90'

E. Murray↳ L. Gibson

Raith

Stranraer

1

22

19

6

5

8

11

14

▼

Hawkshaw

23

▼

Grant

3

Brindley

24

▼

1

26

5

6

⚽

Murray

2

Freeman

14

A

▼

Mullin

20

Brown

8

▼

Matthews

23

Easton

7

▼

Connolly

9

⚽

▼

Hamilton

Manager: I. Murray

37'▲C. Smith←▼J. Hamilton

62'▲S. Stanton←▼A. Connolly

78'▲L. Gibson←▼J. Mullin

79'▲S. Byrne←▼R. Matthews

Raith Rovers substitutes

11Smith16Stanton17Gibson21Byrne3Dick30Nicholson13McNeil25Montagu

Manager: S. Agnew

67'▲T. Orr←▼D. Lang

67'▲E. Dunlop←▼M. Grant

79'▲R. Edgar←▼D. Hawkshaw

Stranraer substitutes

9Orr15Dunlop25Edgar13Broun20Hughes7Adam17McKnight4Cummins