Raith Rovers 4–1 Stranraer: Result & Stats

Raith Rovers

FT

4 – 1

Stranraer

6/26/2021

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raith Rovers66%

×Draw21%

Stranraer14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchStranraer

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

0.75

Raith Rovers

1.96

Stranraer

0.75

Raith Rovers creates 161% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

2.17

creates per match

0.50

1.00

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Raith Rovers

2.17

Stranraer

0.50

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.00

Stranraer

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Stranraer+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Stranraer →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

86%

Raith Rovers or Stranraer

79%

Draw or Stranraer

34%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

40%

Stranraer wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

86%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

58%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

31%

Stranraer 1+ goals

53%

Stranraer 2+ goals

17%

Stranraer 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

83%

Stranraer (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.17, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

Stranraer away — creates 0.50, concedes 1.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.17 + Stranraer defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.96

Stranraer attack 0.50 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

66%

level

21%

Stranraer scores more

14%

Raith Rovers at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff