Raith Rovers 2–0 Hamilton Academical

Raith Rovers

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Hamilton Academical

2/22/2025

League #180 · Round 25Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Raith Rovers58%

×Draw22%

Hamilton Academical20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raith RoversExpected goals in this matchHamilton Academical

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.00

Raith Rovers

1.88

Hamilton Academical

1.00

Raith Rovers creates 88% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.56

creates per match

1.00

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Raith Rovers

1.56

Hamilton Academical

1.00

allows per match

Raith Rovers

1.00

Hamilton Academical

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Hamilton Academical →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw

80%

Raith Rovers or Hamilton Academical

78%

Draw or Hamilton Academical

42%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

34%

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

85%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

56%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

29%

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

63%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

26%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

74%

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Hamilton Academical away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 1.56 + Hamilton Academical defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Hamilton Academical attack 1.00 + Raith Rovers defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Raith Rovers scores more

58%

level

22%

Hamilton Academical scores more

20%

Raith Rovers at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff