Hamilton Academical 0–3 Raith Rovers

Hamilton Academical

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Raith Rovers

1/28/2025

League #180 · Round 15New Douglas Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hamilton Academical36%

×Draw26%

Raith Rovers37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hamilton AcademicalExpected goals in this matchRaith Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.33

Hamilton Academical

1.31

Raith Rovers

1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

1.50

creates per match

1.00

1.67

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Hamilton Academical

1.50

Raith Rovers

1.00

allows per match

Hamilton Academical

1.67

Raith Rovers

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hamilton Academical+0.00on par

Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hamilton Academical ↓

Raith Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Hamilton Academical or draw

63%

Hamilton Academical or Raith Rovers

74%

Draw or Raith Rovers

64%

Winning margin

Hamilton Academical wins by 2+

16%

Raith Rovers wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Hamilton Academical 1+ goals

73%

Hamilton Academical 2+ goals

38%

Hamilton Academical 3+ goals

14%

Raith Rovers 1+ goals

74%

Raith Rovers 2+ goals

38%

Raith Rovers 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Hamilton Academical (draw refunded)

49%

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hamilton Academical at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hamilton Academical attack 1.50 + Raith Rovers defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.31

Raith Rovers attack 1.00 + Hamilton Academical defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Hamilton Academical scores more

36%

level

26%

Raith Rovers scores more

37%

Raith Rovers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff