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Raith Rovers vs Cowdenbeath — League Cup 2018

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
7/14/2018League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 2Bayview Stadium (Methil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Raith Rovers72%
×Draw17%
Cowdenbeath11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.39
Cowdenbeath
0.82

Raith Rovers creates 191% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.58
Cowdenbeath
0.40

allows per match

Raith Rovers
1.25
Cowdenbeath
2.20

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Cowdenbeath+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Cowdenbeath →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
89%
Raith Rovers or Cowdenbeath
83%
Draw or Cowdenbeath
28%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
49%
Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
91%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
69%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
42%
Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
56%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
20%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
87%
Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

Cowdenbeath away — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.58 + Cowdenbeath defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.39

Cowdenbeath attack 0.40 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
72%
level
17%
Cowdenbeath scores more
11%

Raith Rovers at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Cowdenbeath

Cowdenbeath beat Raith Rovers 2-0 in League Cup on July 14, 2018.

The match was played at Bayview Stadium (Methil).