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Cowdenbeath vs Raith Rovers — League Cup 2018

Cowdenbeath
Cowdenbeath
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
7/10/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 1Central Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Cowdenbeath35%
×Draw25%
Raith Rovers40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cowdenbeath
1.36
Raith Rovers
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cowdenbeath
0.73
Raith Rovers
1.27

allows per match

Cowdenbeath
1.64
Raith Rovers
2.00

finishing

Cowdenbeath+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cowdenbeath ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Cowdenbeath or draw
60%
Cowdenbeath or Raith Rovers
75%
Draw or Raith Rovers
65%

Winning margin

Cowdenbeath wins by 2+
16%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Cowdenbeath 1+ goals
74%
Cowdenbeath 2+ goals
39%
Cowdenbeath 3+ goals
16%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
77%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
43%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cowdenbeath (draw refunded)
47%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cowdenbeath at home — creates 0.73, concedes 1.64 · 11 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.00 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cowdenbeath attack 0.73 + Raith Rovers defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.36

Raith Rovers attack 1.27 + Cowdenbeath defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cowdenbeath scores more
35%
level
25%
Raith Rovers scores more
40%

Raith Rovers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cowdenbeath vs Raith Rovers

Raith Rovers beat Cowdenbeath 1-0 in League Cup on July 10, 2021.

The match was played at Central Park in Cowdenbeath.