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Raith Rovers vs Cove Rangers — League #180 2026

Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
10/8/2022League #180League #180 · Round 10Stark's Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Raith Rovers77%
×Draw15%
Cove Rangers8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raith Rovers
2.58
Cove Rangers
0.71

Raith Rovers creates 263% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 4 away

creates per match

Raith Rovers
2.17
Cove Rangers
0.50

allows per match

Raith Rovers
0.92
Cove Rangers
3.00

finishing

Raith Rovers+0.00on par
Cove Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raith Rovers ↓

Cove Rangers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–011%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Raith Rovers or draw
92%
Raith Rovers or Cove Rangers
85%
Draw or Cove Rangers
23%

Winning margin

Raith Rovers wins by 2+
55%
Cove Rangers wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Raith Rovers 1+ goals
92%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
72%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
47%
Cove Rangers 1+ goals
51%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
16%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
90%
Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raith Rovers at home — creates 2.17, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Cove Rangers away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raith Rovers attack 2.17 + Cove Rangers defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.58

Cove Rangers attack 0.50 + Raith Rovers defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 77%?"

Raith Rovers scores more
77%
level
15%
Cove Rangers scores more
8%

Raith Rovers at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raith Rovers vs Cove Rangers

Raith Rovers beat Cove Rangers 3-0 in League #180 on October 8, 2022.

The match was played at Stark's Park in Kirkcaldy.