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Cove Rangers vs Raith Rovers — League #180 2026

Cove Rangers
Cove Rangers
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers
1/14/2023League #180League #180 · Round 22Balmoral Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cove Rangers37%
×Draw25%
Raith Rovers38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cove Rangers
1.43
Raith Rovers
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 12 away

creates per match

Cove Rangers
1.60
Raith Rovers
1.08

allows per match

Cove Rangers
1.80
Raith Rovers
1.25

finishing

Cove Rangers+0.00on par
Raith Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cove Rangers ↓

Raith Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Cove Rangers or draw
62%
Cove Rangers or Raith Rovers
75%
Draw or Raith Rovers
63%

Winning margin

Cove Rangers wins by 2+
17%
Raith Rovers wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Cove Rangers 1+ goals
76%
Cove Rangers 2+ goals
42%
Cove Rangers 3+ goals
17%
Raith Rovers 1+ goals
76%
Raith Rovers 2+ goals
42%
Raith Rovers 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cove Rangers (draw refunded)
50%
Raith Rovers (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cove Rangers at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

Raith Rovers away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.25 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cove Rangers attack 1.60 + Raith Rovers defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.43

Raith Rovers attack 1.08 + Cove Rangers defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Cove Rangers scores more
37%
level
25%
Raith Rovers scores more
38%

Raith Rovers at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Raith Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cove Rangers vs Raith Rovers

Cove Rangers and Raith Rovers drew 2-2 in League #180 on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at Balmoral Stadium in Aberdeen.