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Rainbow vs Mathare United — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mathare United
Mathare United
5/26/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 33Dandora Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow41%
×Draw28%
Mathare United31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.30
Mathare United
1.10

Rainbow creates 18% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Mathare United
1.37

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Mathare United
1.21

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Mathare United+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Mathare United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
69%
Rainbow or Mathare United
72%
Draw or Mathare United
59%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
19%
Mathare United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
73%
Rainbow 2+ goals
37%
Rainbow 3+ goals
14%
Mathare United 1+ goals
67%
Mathare United 2+ goals
30%
Mathare United 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
57%
Mathare United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Mathare United away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.21 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Mathare United defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.30

Mathare United attack 1.37 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Rainbow scores more
41%
level
28%
Mathare United scores more
31%

Rainbow at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Rainbow 0–0 Mathare United

Rainbow and Mathare United drew 0-0 in Super League on May 26, 2024.

The match was played at Dandora Stadium in Nairobi.