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Mathare United vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

Mathare United
Mathare United
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rainbow
Rainbow
11/25/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 11Ruaraka Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Mathare United60%
×Draw24%
Rainbow15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mathare United
1.63
Rainbow
0.68

Mathare United creates 140% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 19 away

creates per match

Mathare United
1.84
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

Mathare United
0.47
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

Mathare United+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mathare United ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Mathare United or draw
85%
Mathare United or Rainbow
76%
Draw or Rainbow
40%

Winning margin

Mathare United wins by 2+
33%
Rainbow wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mathare United 1+ goals
80%
Mathare United 2+ goals
48%
Mathare United 3+ goals
22%
Rainbow 1+ goals
49%
Rainbow 2+ goals
15%
Rainbow 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mathare United (draw refunded)
80%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mathare United at home — creates 1.84, concedes 0.47 · 19 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mathare United attack 1.84 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.63

Rainbow attack 0.89 + Mathare United defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mathare United scores more
60%
level
24%
Rainbow scores more
15%

Mathare United at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mathare United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mathare United vs Rainbow

Mathare United and Rainbow drew 1-1 in Super League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Ruaraka Stadium in Nairobi.