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Rainbow vs Kibera Black Stars — Super League 2018

Rainbow
Rainbow
FT
1 – 2
Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
6/22/2024Super LeagueSuper League · Round 37Thika Municipal Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Rainbow47%
×Draw28%
Kibera Black Stars25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rainbow
1.35
Kibera Black Stars
0.89

Rainbow creates 52% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 110 away

creates per match

Rainbow
1.39
Kibera Black Stars
0.95

allows per match

Rainbow
0.83
Kibera Black Stars
1.31

finishing

Rainbow+0.00on par
Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rainbow ↓

Kibera Black Stars →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Rainbow or draw
75%
Rainbow or Kibera Black Stars
72%
Draw or Kibera Black Stars
53%

Winning margin

Rainbow wins by 2+
23%
Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Rainbow 1+ goals
74%
Rainbow 2+ goals
39%
Rainbow 3+ goals
15%
Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
59%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
22%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Rainbow (draw refunded)
66%
Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rainbow at home — creates 1.39, concedes 0.83 · 18 matches

Kibera Black Stars away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.31 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rainbow attack 1.39 + Kibera Black Stars defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.35

Kibera Black Stars attack 0.95 + Rainbow defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Rainbow scores more
47%
level
28%
Kibera Black Stars scores more
25%

Rainbow at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rainbow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rainbow vs Kibera Black Stars

Kibera Black Stars beat Rainbow 2-1 in Super League on June 22, 2024.

The match was played at Thika Municipal Stadium in Thika.