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Kibera Black Stars vs Rainbow — Super League 2018

Kibera Black Stars
Kibera Black Stars
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Rainbow
Rainbow
10/22/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 6Vapor Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Kibera Black Stars50%
×Draw28%
Rainbow22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kibera Black Stars
1.38
Rainbow
0.82

Kibera Black Stars creates 68% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 19 away

creates per match

Kibera Black Stars
1.33
Rainbow
0.89

allows per match

Kibera Black Stars
0.75
Rainbow
1.42

finishing

Kibera Black Stars+0.00on par
Rainbow+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kibera Black Stars ↓

Rainbow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Kibera Black Stars or draw
78%
Kibera Black Stars or Rainbow
72%
Draw or Rainbow
50%

Winning margin

Kibera Black Stars wins by 2+
24%
Rainbow wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kibera Black Stars 1+ goals
75%
Kibera Black Stars 2+ goals
40%
Kibera Black Stars 3+ goals
16%
Rainbow 1+ goals
56%
Rainbow 2+ goals
20%
Rainbow 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kibera Black Stars (draw refunded)
69%
Rainbow (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kibera Black Stars at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Rainbow away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kibera Black Stars attack 1.33 + Rainbow defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Rainbow attack 0.89 + Kibera Black Stars defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Kibera Black Stars scores more
50%
level
28%
Rainbow scores more
22%

Kibera Black Stars at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Kibera Black Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League: Kibera Black Stars 1–1 Rainbow

Kibera Black Stars and Rainbow drew 1-1 in Super League on October 22, 2023.

The match was played at Vapor Field in Ngong.