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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Jamal — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
4/7/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS35%
×Draw25%
Sheikh Jamal40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.33
Sheikh Jamal
1.44

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 56 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Sheikh Jamal
1.45

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Sheikh Jamal
1.38

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Sheikh Jamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
60%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Sheikh Jamal
75%
Draw or Sheikh Jamal
65%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
15%
Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
74%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
38%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
15%
Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
76%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
42%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
47%
Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.38 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.45 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
35%
level
25%
Sheikh Jamal scores more
40%

Sheikh Jamal at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rahmatgonj MFS 0 – 0 Sheikh Jamal

Rahmatgonj MFS and Sheikh Jamal drew 0-0 in Premier League on April 7, 2023.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.