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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Jamal — Federation Cup 2020

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Sheikh Jamal
Sheikh Jamal
1/10/2023Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS34%
×Draw24%
Sheikh Jamal42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.47
Sheikh Jamal
1.66

Sheikh Jamal creates 13% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Sheikh Jamal
1.75

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Sheikh Jamal
1.38

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Sheikh Jamal+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Sheikh Jamal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
58%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Sheikh Jamal
76%
Draw or Sheikh Jamal
66%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
16%
Sheikh Jamal wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
77%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
43%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
18%
Sheikh Jamal 1+ goals
81%
Sheikh Jamal 2+ goals
49%
Sheikh Jamal 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
45%
Sheikh Jamal (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Sheikh Jamal away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.56 + Sheikh Jamal defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.47

Sheikh Jamal attack 1.75 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
34%
level
24%
Sheikh Jamal scores more
42%

Sheikh Jamal at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sheikh Jamal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rahmatgonj MFS vs Sheikh Jamal

Rahmatgonj MFS beat Sheikh Jamal 3-0 in Federation Cup on January 10, 2023.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.