Rahmatgonj MFS 2–2 Brothers Union: Result & Stats

Rahmatgonj MFS

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Brothers Union

12/29/2023

Premier League · Round 2Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS49%

×Draw24%

Brothers Union28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rahmatgonj MFSExpected goals in this matchBrothers Union

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

1.25

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.74

Brothers Union

1.25

Rahmatgonj MFS creates 39% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 53 away

1.29

creates per match

1.06

1.43

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.29

Brothers Union

1.06

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS

1.43

Brothers Union

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Brothers Union+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Brothers Union →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw

72%

Rahmatgonj MFS or Brothers Union

76%

Draw or Brothers Union

51%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+

26%

Brothers Union wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals

82%

Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals

52%

Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals

25%

Brothers Union 1+ goals

71%

Brothers Union 2+ goals

36%

Brothers Union 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)

64%

Brothers Union (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Brothers Union away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.19 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Brothers Union defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.74

Brothers Union attack 1.06 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more

49%

level

24%

Brothers Union scores more

28%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff