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Brothers Union vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Premier League 2019

Brothers Union
Brothers Union
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
5/3/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 13Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Brothers Union35%
×Draw24%
Rahmatgonj MFS41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brothers Union
1.46
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.58

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 54 home / 75 away

creates per match

Brothers Union
1.13
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.24

allows per match

Brothers Union
1.93
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.80

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw
59%
Brothers Union or Rahmatgonj MFS
76%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
65%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+
16%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals
77%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
43%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
18%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
79%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
47%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)
47%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.93 · 54 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.13 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.46

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Brothers Union defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Brothers Union scores more
35%
level
24%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
41%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Brothers Union 0 – 0 Rahmatgonj MFS

Brothers Union and Rahmatgonj MFS drew 0-0 in Premier League on May 3, 2025.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.