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Brothers Union vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Federation Cup 2020

Brothers Union
Brothers Union
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
10/24/2025Federation CupFederation Cup · Round 1Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Brothers Union40%
×Draw28%
Rahmatgonj MFS32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Brothers Union
1.22
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.06

Brothers Union creates 15% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Brothers Union
1.63
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.00

allows per match

Brothers Union
1.13
Rahmatgonj MFS
0.82

finishing

Brothers Union+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Brothers Union ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Brothers Union or draw
68%
Brothers Union or Rahmatgonj MFS
72%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
60%

Winning margin

Brothers Union wins by 2+
17%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Brothers Union 1+ goals
70%
Brothers Union 2+ goals
34%
Brothers Union 3+ goals
12%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
65%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
29%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Brothers Union (draw refunded)
56%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Brothers Union at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Brothers Union attack 1.63 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.22

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.00 + Brothers Union defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Brothers Union scores more
40%
level
28%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
32%

Brothers Union at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Brothers Union will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Brothers Union vs Rahmatgonj MFS

Brothers Union and Rahmatgonj MFS drew 0-0 in Federation Cup on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium in Rajshahi.