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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Bangladesh Police — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
4 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Bangladesh Police
Bangladesh Police
5/27/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS36%
×Draw26%
Bangladesh Police38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.27
Bangladesh Police
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 62 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Bangladesh Police
1.21

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Bangladesh Police
1.24

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Bangladesh Police+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Bangladesh Police →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
62%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Bangladesh Police
74%
Draw or Bangladesh Police
64%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
15%
Bangladesh Police wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
72%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
36%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
14%
Bangladesh Police 1+ goals
73%
Bangladesh Police 2+ goals
38%
Bangladesh Police 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
48%
Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Bangladesh Police away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.24 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.27

Bangladesh Police attack 1.21 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
36%
level
26%
Bangladesh Police scores more
38%

Bangladesh Police at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Bangladesh Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Rahmatgonj MFS 4–1 Bangladesh Police

Rahmatgonj MFS beat Bangladesh Police 4-1 in Premier League on May 27, 2025.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.