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Bangladesh Police vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Premier League 2019

Bangladesh Police
Bangladesh Police
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
5/4/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Mymensingh Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Bangladesh Police45%
×Draw25%
Rahmatgonj MFS30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bangladesh Police
1.60
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.27

Bangladesh Police creates 26% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 75 away

creates per match

Bangladesh Police
1.40
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.24

allows per match

Bangladesh Police
1.29
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.80

finishing

Bangladesh Police+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bangladesh Police ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Bangladesh Police or draw
70%
Bangladesh Police or Rahmatgonj MFS
75%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
55%

Winning margin

Bangladesh Police wins by 2+
23%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Bangladesh Police 1+ goals
80%
Bangladesh Police 2+ goals
47%
Bangladesh Police 3+ goals
22%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
72%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
36%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Bangladesh Police (draw refunded)
60%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bangladesh Police at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.29 · 63 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bangladesh Police attack 1.40 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.60

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Bangladesh Police defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Bangladesh Police scores more
45%
level
25%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
30%

Bangladesh Police at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Bangladesh Police will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Bangladesh Police 2–0 Rahmatgonj MFS

Bangladesh Police beat Rahmatgonj MFS 2-0 in Premier League on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Mymensingh Stadium in Mymensingh.