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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Abahani Chittagong — Premier League 2019

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
1/12/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 3Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS40%
×Draw25%
Abahani Chittagong35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.49
Abahani Chittagong
1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 75 home / 67 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29
Abahani Chittagong
1.33

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.43
Abahani Chittagong
1.69

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Abahani Chittagong →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
65%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Abahani Chittagong
75%
Draw or Abahani Chittagong
60%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
19%
Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
77%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
44%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
19%
Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
75%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
40%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
53%
Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.43 · 75 matches

Abahani Chittagong away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.69 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.29 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.49

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.33 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
40%
level
25%
Abahani Chittagong scores more
35%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Rahmatgonj MFS 1 – 1 Abahani Chittagong

Rahmatgonj MFS and Abahani Chittagong drew 1-1 in Premier League on January 12, 2024.

The match was played at Shaheed Bir Sreshtho Flight Lieutenant Matiur Rahman Stadium in Munshiganj.