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Abahani Chittagong vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Federation Cup 2020

Abahani Chittagong
Abahani Chittagong
FT
0 – 3
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
1/21/2025Federation CupFederation Cup · Group Stage - 2Bashundhara Kings Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Abahani Chittagong26%
×Draw28%
Rahmatgonj MFS45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani Chittagong
0.91
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.29

Rahmatgonj MFS creates 42% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 11 away

creates per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.00
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.00

allows per match

Abahani Chittagong
1.57
Rahmatgonj MFS
0.82

finishing

Abahani Chittagong+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani Chittagong ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Abahani Chittagong or draw
55%
Abahani Chittagong or Rahmatgonj MFS
72%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
74%

Winning margin

Abahani Chittagong wins by 2+
9%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Abahani Chittagong 1+ goals
60%
Abahani Chittagong 2+ goals
23%
Abahani Chittagong 3+ goals
6%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
72%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
37%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Abahani Chittagong (draw refunded)
37%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani Chittagong at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani Chittagong attack 1.00 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.91

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.00 + Abahani Chittagong defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Abahani Chittagong scores more
26%
level
28%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
45%

Rahmatgonj MFS at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Rahmatgonj MFS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Abahani Chittagong 0–3 Rahmatgonj MFS

Rahmatgonj MFS beat Abahani Chittagong 3-0 in Federation Cup on January 21, 2025.

The match was played at Bashundhara Kings Arena in Dhaka.