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Rahmatgonj MFS vs Abahani — Federation Cup 2020

Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Abahani
Abahani
3/10/2026Federation CupFederation Cup · Round 3Munshiganj Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Rahmatgonj MFS27%
×Draw23%
Abahani51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.28
Abahani
1.85

Abahani creates 45% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

creates per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Abahani
2.14

allows per match

Rahmatgonj MFS
1.56
Abahani
1.00

finishing

Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par
Abahani+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rahmatgonj MFS ↓

Abahani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Rahmatgonj MFS or draw
49%
Rahmatgonj MFS or Abahani
77%
Draw or Abahani
73%

Winning margin

Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
11%
Abahani wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
72%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
37%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
14%
Abahani 1+ goals
84%
Abahani 2+ goals
55%
Abahani 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
34%
Abahani (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rahmatgonj MFS at home — creates 1.56, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

Abahani away — creates 2.14, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.56 + Abahani defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.28

Abahani attack 2.14 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
27%
level
23%
Abahani scores more
51%

Abahani at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Federation Cup: Rahmatgonj MFS 1–1 Abahani

Rahmatgonj MFS and Abahani drew 1-1 in Federation Cup on March 10, 2026.

The match was played at Munshiganj Stadium in Munshigonj.