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Abahani vs Rahmatgonj MFS — Premier League 2019

Abahani
Abahani
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rahmatgonj MFS
Rahmatgonj MFS
5/24/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17Comilla Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Abahani60%
×Draw21%
Rahmatgonj MFS19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Abahani
2.08
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.07

Abahani creates 94% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 75 away

creates per match

Abahani
2.35
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.24

allows per match

Abahani
0.90
Rahmatgonj MFS
1.80

finishing

Abahani+0.00on par
Rahmatgonj MFS+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Abahani ↓

Rahmatgonj MFS →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Abahani or draw
81%
Abahani or Rahmatgonj MFS
79%
Draw or Rahmatgonj MFS
40%

Winning margin

Abahani wins by 2+
37%
Rahmatgonj MFS wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Abahani 1+ goals
87%
Abahani 2+ goals
61%
Abahani 3+ goals
34%
Rahmatgonj MFS 1+ goals
66%
Rahmatgonj MFS 2+ goals
29%
Rahmatgonj MFS 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Abahani (draw refunded)
76%
Rahmatgonj MFS (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Abahani at home — creates 2.35, concedes 0.90 · 77 matches

Rahmatgonj MFS away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.80 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Abahani attack 2.35 + Rahmatgonj MFS defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 2.08

Rahmatgonj MFS attack 1.24 + Abahani defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Abahani scores more
60%
level
21%
Rahmatgonj MFS scores more
19%

Abahani at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Abahani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Abahani vs Rahmatgonj MFS

Abahani and Rahmatgonj MFS drew 1-1 in Premier League on May 24, 2025.

The match was played at Comilla Stadium in Comilla.