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Radunia Stężyca vs Przodkowo — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
FT
6 – 0
Przodkowo
Przodkowo
P. Wojowski 86'
D. Cempa 79', 76'
S. Deja 60' (pen)
D. Retlewski 55'
R. Stepien 20'
5/8/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Gminny Stadion Sportowy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Radunia Stężyca75%
×Draw15%
Przodkowo10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Radunia Stężyca
2.62
Przodkowo
0.83

Radunia Stężyca creates 216% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 42 away

creates per match

Radunia Stężyca
3.50
Przodkowo
1.10

allows per match

Radunia Stężyca
0.56
Przodkowo
1.74

finishing

Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par
Przodkowo+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Radunia Stężyca ↓

Przodkowo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Radunia Stężyca or draw
90%
Radunia Stężyca or Przodkowo
85%
Draw or Przodkowo
25%

Winning margin

Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
53%
Przodkowo wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
93%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
73%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
48%
Przodkowo 1+ goals
56%
Przodkowo 2+ goals
20%
Przodkowo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
89%
Przodkowo (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Radunia Stężyca at home — creates 3.50, concedes 0.56 · 18 matches

Przodkowo away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.74 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.50 + Przodkowo defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 2.62

Przodkowo attack 1.10 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Radunia Stężyca scores more
75%
level
15%
Przodkowo scores more
10%

Radunia Stężyca at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
R. Stepien
55'
D. Retlewski
60'
S. DejaPenalty
76'
D. Cempa
79'
D. Cempa
86'
P. Wojowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Radunia Stężyca 6–0 Przodkowo

Radunia Stężyca beat Przodkowo 6-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on May 8, 2021.

Goals: R. Stepien (20'), D. Retlewski (55'), S. Deja (60' pen), D. Cempa (76', 79'), P. Wojowski (86').

The match was played at Gminny Stadion Sportowy in Stężyca.