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Przodkowo vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Przodkowo
Przodkowo
FT
0 – 10
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
6/19/2021III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 34Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Przodkowo15%
×Draw18%
Radunia Stężyca67%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Przodkowo
0.99
Radunia Stężyca
2.33

Radunia Stężyca creates 135% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 17 away

creates per match

Przodkowo
1.16
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Przodkowo
1.60
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Przodkowo+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Przodkowo ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–210%
0–38%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Przodkowo or draw
33%
Przodkowo or Radunia Stężyca
82%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
85%

Winning margin

Przodkowo wins by 2+
5%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
44%

Team goals

Przodkowo 1+ goals
63%
Przodkowo 2+ goals
26%
Przodkowo 3+ goals
8%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
90%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
67%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Przodkowo (draw refunded)
18%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Przodkowo at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.60 · 43 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Przodkowo attack 1.16 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.99

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Przodkowo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Przodkowo scores more
15%
level
18%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
67%

Radunia Stężyca at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Przodkowo vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Przodkowo 10-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Przodkowo.